Guinea-Bissau's recent constitutional referendum has sparked intense debate, with critics warning of a potential democratic setback. The referendum, which saw an impressive turnout of over 55%, resulted in a 70% approval rate for a new constitution that significantly expands the president's powers. This development has raised concerns among opposition parties and democracy advocates, who argue that the changes will concentrate power in the hands of the executive, potentially undermining the country's hard-won democratic gains.
The new constitution introduces several controversial provisions. It reduces the number of parliamentary seats from 102 to 65 and electoral constituencies from 29 to 12, potentially diluting the influence of local representatives. Perhaps most notably, it imposes a five-year residency requirement for presidential candidates, a move that critics view as a strategic move to marginalize diaspora-based politicians with strong followings. This interpretation is supported by the fact that the leading opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was barred from fielding a presidential candidate in the 2025 election, further fueling accusations of political manipulation.
The referendum's outcome is expected to pave the way for December's elections, which could significantly impact Guinea-Bissau's political landscape. The country has a history of political instability, marked by numerous coup attempts since its independence in 1974. The most recent coup, following disputed presidential elections in November, led to the establishment of a transitional ruling council headed by General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Na Man's statement, emphasizing the need to allow the elected president to complete their mandate without interference, highlights the delicate balance between stability and democratic principles.
Nelson Moreira, the second vice-president of the transitional council, argues that the outgoing constitution, in effect since 1993, has been a source of Guinea-Bissau's political turmoil. However, critics counter that the new constitution may simply be a tool to legitimize a power grab, rather than a genuine effort to stabilize the country. The PAIGC's boycott of the referendum and its characterization of the process as a 'democratic farce' underscore the depth of opposition to the constitutional changes.
As Guinea-Bissau prepares for the upcoming elections, the international community will be watching closely. The outcome will have significant implications for the country's democratic trajectory and its ability to navigate the challenges of political transition. The world will be keen to see whether the new constitution can foster stability or if it will become a tool for further power concentration, potentially reversing the progress made towards democratic consolidation.
